Understanding regional streamflow trend magnitudes in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Abstract

ABSTRACT Understanding long-term trends in streamflow is important for water resource management. In this study, we investigate the long-term streamflow trends at 47 gauging sites within the southern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. This study aims to estimate regional streamflow trends while understanding the impact of catchment characteristics on the spatial variation in these trends. To achieve this, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to make the best use of available streamflow records from multiple sites and catchment characteristics such as climate, terrain, geology, land use and vegetation. The results show that streamflow trends from tested sites are consistently negative, with magnitudes of up to 2.7% per year relative to the annual average flow. We also find that spatial variability in trends can be best linked to differences in average climatic and terrain conditions. This finding can be used to inform future water planning for consumptive and environmental uses in the MDB.