The Fermi paradox: impact of astrophysical processes and dynamical evolution

IF 1.7 4区 物理与天体物理 Q3 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
D. Schleicher, S. Bovino
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The Fermi paradox has given rise to various attempts to explain why no evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations was found so far on Earth and in our Solar System. Here, we present a dynamical model for the development of such civilizations, which accounts for self-destruction, colonization and astrophysical destruction mechanisms of civilizations including gamma-ray bursts, type Ia and type II supernovae as well as radiation from the supermassive black hole. We adopt conservative estimates regarding the efficiency of such processes and find that astrophysical effects can influence the development of intelligent civilizations and change the number of systems with such civilizations by roughly a factor of $2$ ; potentially more if the feedback is enhanced. Our results show that non-equilibrium evolution allows for solutions in-between extreme cases such as ‘rare Earth’ or extreme colonization, including scenarios with civilization fractions between $10^{-2}$ and $10^{-7}$ . These would imply still potentially large distances to the next such civilizations, particularly when persistence phenomena are being considered. As previous studies, we confirm that the main uncertainties are due to the lifetime of civilizations as well as the assumed rate of colonization. For SETI-like studies, we believe that unbiased searches are needed considering both the possibilities that the next civilizations are nearby or potentially very far away.
费米悖论:天体物理过程和动力学演化的影响
费米悖论引发了各种各样的尝试来解释为什么迄今为止在地球和我们的太阳系中没有发现外星文明的证据。在这里,我们提出了这类文明发展的动力学模型,该模型解释了文明的自我毁灭、殖民化和天体物理破坏机制,包括伽马射线暴、Ia型和II型超新星以及超大质量黑洞的辐射。我们对这种过程的效率进行了保守估计,发现天体物理效应可以影响智能文明的发展,并使拥有这种文明的系统的数量变化大约2美元;如果反馈被增强,则可能更多。我们的研究结果表明,非平衡进化允许在极端情况下解决问题,如“稀土”或极端殖民化,包括文明分数在10^{-2}$和10^{-7}$之间的情况。这意味着与下一个这样的文明还有很长的距离,特别是在考虑持久性现象时。正如之前的研究一样,我们证实,主要的不确定性是由于文明的寿命以及假定的殖民化率。对于类似SETI的研究,我们认为需要考虑到下一个文明在附近或可能非常遥远的可能性,进行公正的搜索。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Astrobiology
International Journal of Astrobiology 地学天文-地球科学综合
CiteScore
3.70
自引率
11.80%
发文量
45
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: International Journal of Astrobiology is the peer-reviewed forum for practitioners in this exciting interdisciplinary field. Coverage includes cosmic prebiotic chemistry, planetary evolution, the search for planetary systems and habitable zones, extremophile biology and experimental simulation of extraterrestrial environments, Mars as an abode of life, life detection in our solar system and beyond, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, the history of the science of astrobiology, as well as societal and educational aspects of astrobiology. Occasionally an issue of the journal is devoted to the keynote plenary research papers from an international meeting. A notable feature of the journal is the global distribution of its authors.
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