When do leader backgrounds matter? Evidence from the President’s Daily Brief

IF 1.7 2区 社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Michael A. Goldfien, Michael F. Joseph, Daniel Krcmaric
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A wave of recent scholarship shows that the backgrounds of political leaders shape their behavior once in office. This paper shifts the literature in a new direction by investigating the conditions under which foreign observers think a leader's background is relevant. We argue that pre-tenure biographical attributes are most informative to outsiders during leadership transitions—unique periods where the new ruler does not yet have a track record—because a leader's background provides clues about how that leader might govern. But as time passes, foreign observers quickly discount the leader's biography and instead evaluate the leader's observable behavior. We test our theory by creating a systematic daily measure of attention to foreign leader backgrounds derived from the President's Daily Brief, a novel data source of 4991 recently declassified reports from the Central Intelligence Agency to the American president.
领导者背景什么时候重要?来自总统每日简报的证据
最近的一系列学术研究表明,政治领导人的背景决定了他们上任后的行为。本文通过调查外国观察家认为领导人背景相关的条件,将文献转向了一个新的方向。我们认为,在领导层换届期间,即新统治者还没有业绩记录的独特时期,任期前的传记属性对局外人来说信息最多,因为领导者的背景为该领导者如何执政提供了线索。但随着时间的推移,外国观察者很快对这位领导人的传记不以为然,转而评价这位领导人的可观察行为。我们通过创建一个系统的每日关注外国领导人背景的指标来检验我们的理论,该指标来源于《总统每日简报》,这是中央情报局最近解密的4991份美国总统报告的新数据来源。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Conflict Management and Peace Science
Conflict Management and Peace Science INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
4.80%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: Conflict Management and Peace Science is a peer-reviewed journal published five times a year from 2009. It contains scientific papers on topics such as: - international conflict; - arms races; - the effect of international trade on political interactions; - foreign policy decision making; - international mediation; - and game theoretic approaches to conflict and cooperation. Affiliated with the Peace Science Society (International), Conflict Management and Peace Science features original and review articles focused on news and events related to the scientific study of conflict and peace. Members of the Peace Science Society (International) receive an annual subscription to Conflict Management and Peace Science as a benefit of membership.
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