Agricultural land use and morphometry explain substantial variation in nutrient and ion concentrations in lakes across Canada

Abstract

Declines in freshwater quality resulting from anthropogenic nutrient input remain a persistent issue worldwide. Yet, we still have a limited understanding of the magnitude and scale at which most lakes have been affected by human activities, namely Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) alterations. In response, the NSERC Canadian Lake Pulse Network has compiled the first nationwide systematic database of lake quality metrics by surveying 664 lakes across 12 ecozones over three years. To assess the influence of catchment development on water quality and its spatial variation, we built generally additive models and multivariate regressions to quantify the association between watershed LULC and lake temperature, Secchi depth, as well as chlorophyll-a, limiting nutrient, and ion concentrations. We found that agricultural and urban land use explained the greatest proportion of variation in water quality among LULC categories (R^2 = 0.20–0.29). Overall, our study highlights that drivers of water quality are similar across regions; however, baseline conditions vary, so freshwater ecosystem management strategies must consider their geographic context to better predict where water quality thresholds will be surpassed.