Visualising the Optimistic, Realistic, and Pessimistic Financial Distress Outlooks for Airport Operations in Malaysia

IF 0.7 Q4 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Journal of Cases on Information Technology Pub Date : 2023-06-08 DOI:10.4018/jcit.324103

Mahayaudin M. Mansor, N. Ibrahim, Siti Afiqah Muhamad Jamil, Nur Amalina binti Shafie, Siti Meriam Zahari

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper aims to visualise three financial distress outlooks using computer simulations. The financial distress exposure for airport operations in Malaysia between 1991 and 2021 is given by Altman Z”-score and modelled by the multivariate generalized linear model (MGLM). Seven determinants contributing to the financial distress from literature are examined. The determinant series are fitted individually by using linear model with time series components and autoregressive integrated moving average models to forecast values for the next 10 financial years. Future short- to long-term memory effects following COVID-19 are apparent in time series plots. In the simulations, the MGLM procedure utilised Gaussian, gamma, and Cauchy probability distributions associated with expectations and challenges of doing business as well as uncertainties in the economy. The underlying trends of realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic financial distress outlooks insinuate that the increasing risk of financial distress of airport operations in Malaysia is expected to continue for the next decade.

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可视化马来西亚机场运营的乐观、现实和悲观的财务困境前景

本文旨在通过计算机模拟将三种财务困境前景可视化。1991年至2021年间马来西亚机场运营的财务困境敞口由Altman Z评分给出，并由多元广义线性模型（MGLM）建模。研究了文献中导致财务困境的七个决定因素。通过使用具有时间序列分量的线性模型和自回归综合移动平均模型来单独拟合行列式序列，以预测未来10个财政年度的值。新冠肺炎后的未来短期到长期记忆效应在时间序列图中很明显。在模拟中，MGLM程序使用了与商业预期和挑战以及经济不确定性相关的高斯、伽马和柯西概率分布。现实、乐观和悲观的财务困境前景的基本趋势表明，马来西亚机场运营的财务困境风险预计将在未来十年持续增加。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Cases on Information Technology COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： JCIT documents comprehensive, real-life cases based on individual, organizational and societal experiences related to the utilization and management of information technology. Cases published in JCIT deal with a wide variety of organizations such as businesses, government organizations, educational institutions, libraries, non-profit organizations. Additionally, cases published in JCIT report not only successful utilization of IT applications, but also failures and mismanagement of IT resources and applications.