Price and income elasticities of industrial electricity demand in Brazil: estimates and implications of COVID-19

IF 2.5 Q3 MANAGEMENT

International Journal of Energy Sector Management Pub Date : 2023-06-13 DOI:10.1108/ijesm-03-2022-0007

Luís Oscar Silva Martins, Inara Rosa Amorim, Vinícius de Araújo Mendes, Marcelo Santana Silva, Francisco Gaudêncio Mendonça Freires, E. Torres

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Abstract

Purpose This study aims to examine the price and income elasticities of short- and long-run industrial electricity demand in Brazil between 2003 and 2020. The research also examines the impacts of COVID-19 in Brazil’s industrial electricity sector, including an analysis in states more and less industrialized. Design/methodology/approach Dynamic adjustments models in panel data are used to present robust estimates and analyze the impact of different methodologies on reported elasticities. Findings The short-run price elasticity is estimated at −0.448, while the long-run values are around −1.60. Regarding income elasticity, the value is 0.069 in the short-run and is concentrated in 0.25 in the long-run. The inelastic results of income show that the industrial demand for electric energy follows the trend of loss of competitiveness of the Brazilian industry in the past years. In addition, the price of natural gas, the level of employment, and, in specific cases, the level of imports also influence industrial electricity demand. Originality/value The research is a pioneer in the investigation of the industrial behavior of electricity of the Brazilian industrial branch, using as control variables, the average temperature, and the level of rainfall, this one, so important for a country whose main source is hydroelectric. In addition, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first study, which is prepared to analyze the effects of COVID-19 on electric consumption in the industrial sector, investigating these impacts, including in the states considered more and less industrialized. The estimates generated may help in the design of the Brazilian energy policy.

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巴西工业用电需求的价格和收入弹性:COVID-19的估计和影响

目的本研究旨在检验2003年至2020年间巴西短期和长期工业电力需求的价格和收入弹性。该研究还考察了新冠肺炎对巴西工业电力部门的影响，包括对工业化程度较高和较低的州的分析。设计/方法/方法面板数据中的动态调整模型用于提供稳健的估计，并分析不同方法对报告弹性的影响。发现短期价格弹性估计为-0.484，而长期价格弹性约为-1.60。关于收入弹性，短期值为0.069，长期值集中在0.25。收入的非弹性结果表明，过去几年，工业对电能的需求遵循了巴西工业竞争力丧失的趋势。此外，天然气价格、就业水平，在特定情况下，进口水平也会影响工业电力需求。独创性/价值这项研究是调查巴西工业部门电力工业行为的先驱，将平均温度和降雨量作为控制变量，这对一个以水力发电为主要来源的国家来说非常重要。此外，据作者所知，这是第一项研究，旨在分析新冠肺炎对工业部门电力消耗的影响，调查这些影响，包括在被认为工业化程度较高和较低的州。所产生的估计数可能有助于巴西能源政策的设计。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Energy Sector Management MANAGEMENT-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

22.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Energy Sector Management aims to facilitate dissemination of research on issues relating to supply management (covering the entire supply chain of resource finding, extraction, production, treatment, conversion, transportation, distribution and retail supply), demand and usage management, waste management, customer and other stakeholder management, and solutions thereto. The journal covers all forms of energy (non-renewable and renewable), forms of supply (centralised or decentralised), ownership patterns (public or private, cooperative, joint, or any other), market structures (formal, informal, integrated, disintegrated, national, international, local, etc.) and degress of commoditisation (e.g. internationally traded, regionally traded, non-traded, etc.). The journal aims to cover a wide range of subjects relevant to the management of the energy sector, including but not limited to: Management of scarce resources (economic, financial, human and natural), projects, activities and concerns (e.g. regulatory, social and environmental aspects), technologies and knowledge Business strategy, policy and planning as well as decision support systems for energy sector management Business organisation, structure and environment, and changes thereto Globalisation and multi-cultural management Management of innovation, change and transition.