Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on the eco-hydrological regimes of the Weihe River Basin, Northwest China

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic interventions have obviously altered the eco-hydrological regimes. A quantitative evaluation and attribution of the eco-hydrological alterations are urgently required. In this study, we evaluated the various attributions of eco-hydrological regimes in the Weihe River Basin (WRB). Firstly, the trends and change-point analysis of hydrological elements were examined, and the natural streamflow was reproduced based on the variable infiltration capacity model. Then, the most ecologically relevant hydrological indicators (ERHIs) were selected and combined with the eco-deficit and eco-surplus indicators to assess the degree of eco-hydrological regime alterations. Finally, the relative contributions to eco-hydrological alterations were quantified using the ‘simulated–observed comparison’ method. The results showed that (1) the streamflow of the WRB exhibited significant decreasing trends (p < 0.01), and a significant change point (p < 0.01) of the streamflow series was identified in 1990. (2) Seven representative indicators of hydrological alteration were selected as ERHIs. (3) During the human-induced period (1991–2017), human activities were the dominant factors in the eco-hydrological alterations as well as the variations of the ERHI indexes and the eco-deficit and eco-surplus metrics. Overall, the proposed framework may improve the understanding of the driving forces of eco-hydrological regime alterations under a changing environment.