Demographic change in Brazil and its impacts on CO2 emissions

Abstract

In recent years, the debate about demographic changes and its impacts on the economy has increased. The growth in the relative share of elderly people in the age pyramid may occur in the coming decades in many parts of the world, and their effects on the composition of consumption, notably on energy demand and emissions, are not yet known. This article estimates the changes in the pattern of consumption in Brazil due to the changes projected in the age pyramid in 2050 and the consequences of these changes on CO2 emissions. For this, projections will be made using an input–output model for the Brazilian economy for the year 2010 considering 67 productive sectors and six age groups. The results suggest that emissions grow less than proportionally to population growth and that the participation of sectors such as fuels and transport shows a small decrease in the consumption vector for 2050.