Change analysis of All India and regional rainfall data series at annual and monsoon scales

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science

Hydrology Research Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI:10.2166/nh.2023.005

S. Jain, Chong-yu Xu, Yanlai Zhou

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Characteristics of rainfall are changing due to several reasons and change/trend detection is required. The literature survey reveals many relevant studies whose outcomes are divergent. A possible reason is that different data series have been used and different methodologies have been applied. This paper presents a critical appraisal of past studies and methodologies for trend analysis. Results of trend analysis of Indian rainfall data are presented. Data for all of India and for five homogenous regions (North-West, Central North-East, North-East, West Central, and Peninsular India) for 1871–2016 were used. The Pettitt change point test, regression, Mann–Kendall (MK), and Wavelet Decomposition were used to study different aspects of changes. Results of the change point test showed that most rainfall series had change points around 1957–65, possibly due to large-scale land use, cultivation, irrigation, and industrial changes in this period. Generally, rainfall for most homogenous regions and sub-divisions show falling trends; some are statistically significant. Series was also decomposed by the wavelet method. Approximate and detailed components of some decomposed series showed a significant declining trend. This work has focused on the magnitude of rainfalls; trends in rainfall intensities are also important. It is necessary to establish denser observation networks to collect short-term data and analyze.

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全年和季风尺度下全印度和区域降雨数据系列的变化分析

降雨特征由于多种原因而发生变化，需要进行变化/趋势检测。文献调查揭示了许多相关研究，其结果各不相同。一个可能的原因是使用了不同的数据系列，并应用了不同的方法。本文对过去的研究和趋势分析方法进行了批判性评价。介绍了印度降雨量数据的趋势分析结果。使用了1871年至2016年全印度和五个同质地区（西北部、中北部、东北部、中西部和印度半岛）的数据。Pettitt变点检验、回归、Mann–Kendall（MK）和小波分解用于研究变化的不同方面。变化点测试结果表明，大多数降雨序列在1957-65年左右都有变化点，可能是由于这一时期的大规模土地利用、耕作、灌溉和工业变化。总体而言，大多数同质区域和分区的降雨量呈下降趋势；有些具有统计学意义。并用小波方法对序列进行了分解。一些分解序列的近似分量和详细分量呈现出显著的下降趋势。这项工作的重点是降雨量的大小；降雨强度的趋势也很重要。有必要建立更密集的观测网络来收集短期数据并进行分析。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrology Research Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

7.40%

发文量

审稿时长

17 weeks

期刊介绍： Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.