Change analysis of All India and regional rainfall data series at annual and monsoon scales

Abstract

Characteristics of rainfall are changing due to several reasons and change/trend detection is required. The literature survey reveals many relevant studies whose outcomes are divergent. A possible reason is that different data series have been used and different methodologies have been applied. This paper presents a critical appraisal of past studies and methodologies for trend analysis. Results of trend analysis of Indian rainfall data are presented. Data for all of India and for five homogenous regions (North-West, Central North-East, North-East, West Central, and Peninsular India) for 1871–2016 were used. The Pettitt change point test, regression, Mann–Kendall (MK), and Wavelet Decomposition were used to study different aspects of changes. Results of the change point test showed that most rainfall series had change points around 1957–65, possibly due to large-scale land use, cultivation, irrigation, and industrial changes in this period. Generally, rainfall for most homogenous regions and sub-divisions show falling trends; some are statistically significant. Series was also decomposed by the wavelet method. Approximate and detailed components of some decomposed series showed a significant declining trend. This work has focused on the magnitude of rainfalls; trends in rainfall intensities are also important. It is necessary to establish denser observation networks to collect short-term data and analyze.