Effect of alternative regional urban growth scenarios on a major urban lake

IF 1.1 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 LIMNOLOGY

Lake and Reservoir Management Pub Date : 2022-09-06 DOI:10.1080/10402381.2022.2076634

L. Costadone, M. Sytsma

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Abstract

Abstract Costadone L, Sytsma MD. 2022. Effect of alternative regional urban growth scenarios on a major urban lake. Lake Reserv Manage. 38:228–239. Land use management decisions developed at the regional scale that are intended to optimize environmental quality could have negative results at a local scale. We downscaled 3 regional urban growth scenarios (low, medium, and high land conversion) to a watershed scale and assessed how different regional land-use scenarios can impact important ecosystem services provided by a major urban lake. The scenario that depicted a low land conversion and concentrated future urban growth within an urban growth boundary at the regional scale resulted in a high-density development in the area surrounding the lake at the watershed scale. This type of development resulted in an increase of more than 30% in external phosphorus input to the lake compared to current conditions. Higher external phosphorus input will likely lead to water quality deterioration, with detrimental consequences for the ecosystem services provided by the lake. Our model forecasted a reduction of 3 to 4 m in lake water transparency, which will diminish recreational benefits provided by the lake and degrade wildlife habitat. In the next decades, population growth and land conversion will likely cause the resurgence of serious eutrophication symptoms. The reinforcement of nutrient management practices in the lake watershed will be necessary to offset the negative impact of urbanization from regional scale planning. Land-use policies developed at regional scales should consider trade-offs that impact highly valued local sources of ecosystem services.

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替代区域城市增长情景对主要城市湖泊的影响

摘要Costadone L，Sytsma MD.2022。替代区域城市增长情景对主要城市湖泊的影响。湖泊保护区管理。38:228-239。在区域范围内制定的旨在优化环境质量的土地利用管理决策可能会在地方范围内产生负面影响。我们将3种区域城市增长情景（低、中、高土地转化率）缩小到流域规模，并评估了不同的区域土地利用情景如何影响主要城市湖泊提供的重要生态系统服务。在区域范围内，土地转化率低，未来城市增长集中在城市增长边界内，这一情景导致了流域范围内湖泊周围地区的高密度发展。与当前条件相比，这种类型的开发导致湖泊的外部磷输入增加了30%以上。较高的外部磷输入可能会导致水质恶化，对湖泊提供的生态系统服务产生不利影响。我们的模型预测会减少3到4 m的湖水透明度，这将减少湖泊提供的娱乐效益，并降低野生动物的栖息地。在未来几十年，人口增长和土地转换可能会导致严重的富营养化症状死灰复燃。有必要加强湖泊流域的营养管理实践，以抵消区域规模规划对城市化的负面影响。在区域范围内制定的土地利用政策应考虑影响当地高度重视的生态系统服务来源的权衡。

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来源期刊

Lake and Reservoir Management 环境科学-海洋与淡水生物学

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Lake and Reservoir Management (LRM) publishes original, previously unpublished studies relevant to lake and reservoir management. Papers address the management of lakes and reservoirs, their watersheds and tributaries, along with the limnology and ecology needed for sound management of these systems. Case studies that advance the science of lake management or confirm important management concepts are appropriate as long as there is clearly described management significance. Papers on economic, social, regulatory and policy aspects of lake management are also welcome with appropriate supporting data and management implications. Literature syntheses and papers developing a conceptual foundation of lake and watershed ecology will be considered for publication, but there needs to be clear emphasis on management implications. Modeling papers will be considered where the model is properly verified but it is also highly preferable that management based on the model has been taken and results have been documented. Application of known models to yet another system without a clear advance in resultant management are unlikely to be accepted. Shorter notes that convey important early results of long-term studies or provide data relating to causative agents or management approaches that warrant further study are acceptable even if the story is not yet complete. All submissions are subject to peer review to assure relevance and reliability for management application.