Prediction of Groundwater Level Fluctuation towards Rainfall Induced Landslide: Case of Blue Nile Gorge, Central Ethiopia

Abstract

The groundwater level fluctuation was studied in a complex geological setting region where a frequent landslide is observed in a rainy season. Steady and transient states of flow are modeled with different hydrogeological parameters. The models are calibrated to satisfy the observed field conditions and expected results from the scientific point of view. The results reveal that the groundwater level fluctuation and flow direction in the region are complex. In limited areas, the fluctuation of groundwater is significant from season to season while in others the level remains stable in all seasons of the year. Following that, the result of groundwater flow model was exported to GeoStudio to simulate the slope stability of selected slope. The factor of safety was calculated using Slope/W. The effect of pore-water on the factor of safety was cross-checked by remodeling the slope without water. The results and sensitivity analysis of slope stability confirm that the rise of groundwater level decreases the factor of safety significantly only on critical slope section.