Causes of War

Abstract

historical perspective to make sense of future conflicts and crises. This is not just abstract theory; a major international crisis is quite likely to occur in your lifetime. This course is guided by a concern for both theory and history. In the first half of the semester we survey the leading theories of the causes of war, using the “levels-of-analysis” framework to categorize these theories and organize our survey. We begin with the “system” level and focus on realist theories of conflict focusing on state power and interest, giving particular attention to balance of power theory and power transition theory. We also examine the “Prisoner’s dilemma” model, deterrence and spiral models, and the “bargaining model of war.” Each of these theories assumes that states’ foreign policies are rational responses to their external environments and designed to maximize the national interest. Other theories suggest that the causes of war derive from factors internal to the state, including the domestic political interests of decision-makers, the economic interests of private groups, public opinion, or organizational processes. We examine these “societal” and “governmental” level theories, along with “individual” level theories that emphasize the role of the belief systems, personalities, and idiosyncracies of political leaders. We illustrate each of the main theoretical arguments with examples from a wide range of historical cases. Among the questions the levels-of-analysis framework leads us to ask is whether the outbreak of wars is due more to states’ external competition for power and security or to their internal political dynamics or the psychological make-up of political leaders.