Who Stays and Who Goes: Understanding the Immigration Vote in the 2015 UK General Election

Abstract

How do voters choose between a mainstream party and a populist radical right party (PRRP)? Existing research says that PRRP voters share specific attitudinal characteristics, but many mainstream party voters also have these attitudes. Drawing on spatial theories of party competition, voters make their decision to vote for a mainstream party or a PRRP based on their perceived placement of the mainstream party on immigration. Looking at the case of the 2015 United Kingdom (UK) General Election with the British Election Study Panel Survey, I analyse voters that think immigration is the most important issue facing the UK. These are the voters that prioritise the same issue as UK Independence Party (UKIP). The findings show that those who perceive the Conservative Party will reduce immigration are less likely to vote UKIP than those who perceive the Conservative Party will not reduce immigration. This relationship holds even when the respondent is highly Eurosceptic and anti-immigration.