Estimating international migration flows for the Asia-Pacific region: Application of a generation–distribution model

Abstract

Flows of international migration are needed in the Asia-Pacific region to understand the patterns and corresponding effects on demographic, social, and economic change across sending and receiving countries. A major challenge to this understanding is that nearly all of the countries in this region do not gather or produce statistics on flows of international migration. The only information that are widely available represent immigrant population stocks measured at specific points in time—but these represent poor proxies for annual movements. In this paper, we present a methodology for indirectly estimating annual flows of international migration amongst 53 populations in the Asia-Pacific region and four macro world regions from 2000 to 2019 using a generation–distribution framework. The estimates suggest that 27–31 million persons from the Asia-Pacific region have changed their countries of usual residence during each year in the study. Southern Asia is estimated to have had the largest inflows and outflows, whilst intra-regional migration and return migration were highest in Eastern, Southern, and South-Eastern Asia. India, China, and Indonesia were estimated to have had the largest emigration flows and net migration losses. As a first attempt to estimate international migration flows in the Asia-Pacific region, this paper provides a basis for understanding the dynamics and complexity of the large-scale migration occurring in the region.