Using @RISK to Determine Potential Economic Losses to Jujube Production in China Resulting from Damage by Carposina sasakii (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae)

IF 0.7 4区 农林科学 Q4 ENTOMOLOGY
Yawen Duan, Delin Kang, Zhihong Li, Minglu Yang, Yujia Qin, Haibing Xiao, Lijun Liu
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Abstract

Abstract Carposina sasakii Matsumura (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) is a serious fruit-boring pest in eastern Asia. In China, it is one of the most harmful and common pests in deciduous fruit trees, causing an annual loss of more than a billion yuan. However, economic losses to the jujube industry as a result of C. sasakii damage remain undefined. In this study, we collected related data on C. sasakii, the market price of jujube, and costs of its prevention and management. The potential economic losses of China's jujube industry caused by C. sasakii were predicted using @RISK (Palisade, Raleigh, NC) software and a stochastic simulation method, which is the universal model of potential economic loss assessment for economically important fruit flies. Our results showed that the total economic losses potentially caused by C. sasakii to China's jujube industry are approximately 8,643.41–350,524.15 million RMB (RMB is the legal tender in China; approximately 1,338.00–54,261.14 million USD) if the pest was not managed and approximately 2,487.15–123,242.12 million RMB (about 385.01–19, 077.88 million USD) when management was applied. Therefore, a loss of approximately 841.83–244,144.06 million RMB (approximately 130.32–37,793.50 million USD) can be logically retrieved after controlling this pest. As a result, we suggest that related organizations and pest management practitioners strengthen prevention and control measures of C. sasakii to reduce the risk of economic loss by decreasing the infestation level of C. sasakii in jujube production and, thus, economic losses after infestation.
利用@RISK确定中国大枣生产因卡氏菌(鳞翅目:卡氏菌科)危害而遭受的潜在经济损失
摘要松村鲤鱼(鳞翅目:鲤鱼科)是东亚地区一种严重的枯果害虫。在中国,它是落叶果树中危害最大、最常见的害虫之一,每年造成超过10亿元的损失。然而,由于C.sasakii的破坏,红枣产业的经济损失仍未确定。在本研究中,我们收集了沙枣的相关数据、市场价格及其预防和管理成本。利用@RISK(Palisade,Raleigh,NC)软件和随机模拟方法,预测了沙akii对中国红枣产业造成的潜在经济损失,该方法是经济重要果蝇潜在经济损失评估的通用模型。我们的研究结果表明,如果不管理该害虫,C.sasakii可能给中国红枣产业造成的总经济损失约为8643.41–35052415万元人民币(人民币是中国的法定货币;约为1338.00–54261.14万美元),而当采用管理时,可能给中国枣业造成的总损失约为2487.15–123242.12万元人民币,约为38501–190788万美元。因此,控制该害虫后,可以合理挽回约84183–24414406万元人民币(约13032–37793.50万美元)的损失。因此,我们建议相关组织和害虫管理从业人员加强对沙枣的预防和控制措施,通过降低沙枣在红枣生产中的虫害水平,从而降低虫害后的经济损失,从而降低经济损失的风险。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
11.10%
发文量
40
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Entomological Science (ISSN 0749-8004) is a peer-reviewed, scholarly journal that is published quarterly (January, April, July, and October) under the auspices of the Georgia Entomological Society in concert with Allen Press (Lawrence, Kansas). Manuscripts deemed acceptable for publication in the Journal report original research with insects and related arthropods or literature reviews offering foundations to innovative directions in entomological research
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