The life cycle of conspiracy theories: evidence from a long-term panel survey on conspiracy beliefs in Italy

IF 1.7 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Moreno Mancosu, S. Vassallo
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Abstract Conspiracy theories are gaining increasing interest in academic and public debate. A broad research agenda focused on the socio-political and psychological determinants of conspiracy theory beliefs, on the effect of social media as a new channel of dissemination, on the role played by populist leaders in explaining those theories, and on the impact on social and political outputs. This introduction to the special issue proposes a summary of this growing literature and addresses an aspect that is still under-investigated: the life cycle of conspiracy theories. Previous empirical studies investigated the topic either in a cross-sectional fashion or by employing short-term panels – focusing on how conspiracy theories change over a small period (e.g., before and after an election). Using panel survey data, we take a medium-term approach. We base our investigation on a longitudinal study composed of two survey waves, administered in 2016 and late 2020. Respondents were asked to rate the plausibility of different ‘classic’ conspiracy theories. This allows comparing changes in beliefs in those conspiracy theories over this 4-year time frame. Results show that believes in these theories decrease over time. Furthermore, this decline can only be marginally explained by individual socio-demographic characteristics or political orientations. After thoroughly describing these differences over time, we speculate on why this decline occurs, mainly basing our argument on the role of the media landscape in shaping public opinion.
阴谋论的生命周期:来自意大利阴谋信仰长期小组调查的证据
阴谋论在学术界和公众辩论中引起了越来越大的兴趣。广泛的研究议程侧重于阴谋论信仰的社会政治和心理决定因素,社交媒体作为一种新的传播渠道的影响,民粹主义领导人在解释这些理论时所发挥的作用,以及对社会和政治产出的影响。这篇特刊的介绍对这一不断增长的文献进行了总结,并提出了一个尚未得到充分研究的方面:阴谋论的生命周期。以前的实证研究要么以横断面的方式调查这个话题,要么采用短期小组——关注阴谋论在一段时间内(例如,选举前后)是如何变化的。使用面板调查数据,我们采取中期方法。我们的调查基于一项纵向研究,该研究由两波调查组成,分别于2016年和2020年底进行。受访者被要求对不同“经典”阴谋论的可信性进行打分。这可以比较在这4年的时间框架内,这些阴谋论的信念的变化。结果表明,随着时间的推移,人们对这些理论的信任度逐渐下降。此外,这种下降只能用个别社会人口特征或政治倾向来解释。随着时间的推移,在彻底描述了这些差异之后,我们推测了这种下降发生的原因,主要基于我们对媒体景观在塑造公众舆论中的作用的论点。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.00
自引率
10.00%
发文量
34
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