Exit problem of stochastic SIR model with limited medical resource

IF 3.2 3区工程技术 Q2 MECHANICS

Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Letters Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.taml.2022.100393

Y.C. Mao, X.B. Liu

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Nonlinearity and randomness are both the essential attributes for the real world, and the case is the same for the models of infectious diseases, for which the deterministic models can not give a complete picture of the evolution. However, although there has been a lot of work on stochastic epidemic models, most of them focus mainly on qualitative properties, which makes us somewhat ignore the original meaning of the parameter value. In this paper we extend the classic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model by adding a white noise excitation and then we utilize the large deviation theory to quantitatively study the long-term coexistence exit problem with epidemic. Finally, in order to extend the meaning of parameters in the corresponding deterministic system, we tentatively introduce two new thresholds which then prove rational.

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有限医疗资源下随机SIR模型的退出问题

非线性和随机性都是现实世界的基本属性，传染病模型也是如此，确定性模型不能给出完整的进化图景。然而，虽然已经有很多关于随机流行病模型的工作，但大多数主要集中在定性性质上，这使得我们在某种程度上忽略了参数值的原始含义。本文通过引入白噪声激励，对经典的易感-传染性-去除(SIR)流行病模型进行了扩展，利用大偏差理论定量研究了与流行病长期共存的退出问题。最后，为了扩展相应确定性系统中参数的意义，我们试探性地引入了两个新的阈值，然后证明了它们是有理的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Letters MECHANICS-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

2.90%

发文量

545

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： An international journal devoted to rapid communications on novel and original research in the field of mechanics. TAML aims at publishing novel, cutting edge researches in theoretical, computational, and experimental mechanics. The journal provides fast publication of letter-sized articles and invited reviews within 3 months. We emphasize highlighting advances in science, engineering, and technology with originality and rapidity. Contributions include, but are not limited to, a variety of topics such as: • Aerospace and Aeronautical Engineering • Coastal and Ocean Engineering • Environment and Energy Engineering • Material and Structure Engineering • Biomedical Engineering • Mechanical and Transportation Engineering • Civil and Hydraulic Engineering Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Letters (TAML) was launched in 2011 and sponsored by Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IMCAS) and The Chinese Society of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (CSTAM). It is the official publication the Beijing International Center for Theoretical and Applied Mechanics (BICTAM).