COMMENTARY – THE PARADOX OF TWO WARS IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The central thesis of this commentary focuses on the paradox of two wars occurring in parallel with Russian aggression in Ukraine. It is not just that—in addition to military action—there is a geopolitical tsunami and its consequences in the form of a possible food crisis, mass migration, or an already open energy war. The paradox relates to the fact that a potential Ukrainian victory could have adverse effects on the welfare of European countries as a consequence of the embargo on Russian hydrocarbons and the need to replace them (assuming there is no return to the ancien régime before the Russian aggression of February 24, 2022). The defeat of the Ukrainians, on the other hand, could lead to a so-called “new opening” and a gradual return to the import of Russian energy resources (which, although they will not obtain the pre-war volume, will provide energy stability for Europe in a period of diversifying contracts and developing investments in renewable energy sources).