Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts to improve their accuracy

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1017/s1930297500009049

Ying Han, D. Budescu

引用次数: 2

Abstract

The accuracy of human forecasters is often reduced because of incomplete information and cognitive biases that affect the judges. One approach to improve the accuracy of the forecasts is to recalibrate them by means of non-linear transformations that are sensitive to the direction and the magnitude of the biases. Previous work on recalibration has focused on binary forecasts. We propose an extension of this approach by developing an algorithm that uses a single free parameter to recalibrate complete subjective probability distributions. We illustrate the approach with data from the quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB), document the potential benefits of this approach, and show how it can be used in practical applications.

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重新校准概率预测以提高其准确性

由于信息不完整和影响法官的认知偏见，人类预测者的准确性往往会降低。提高预测准确性的一种方法是通过对偏差的方向和大小敏感的非线性变换来重新校准预测。以前的重新校准工作主要集中在二进制预测上。我们通过开发一种算法来扩展这种方法，该算法使用单个自由参数来重新校准完整的主观概率分布。我们用欧洲央行（ECB）进行的专业预测师季度调查（SPF）的数据来说明这种方法，记录这种方法的潜在好处，并展示它如何在实际应用中使用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.