Sectoral determinants of sub-federal budget tax revenues: Russian case study

Abstract

Research background: The research is based on the assumption that the sectoral structure of economy has a significant impact on the level and dynamics of sub-federal budget tax revenues. It distinguishes the following sectoral determinants of tax revenues in regions: the levels of tax return and tax absorption, inflation and economic growth in various economic activities. Purpose of the article: We aimed at assessment of contribution of economic activities and their determinants to the increase in tax revenues of sub-federal budgets of the Russian Federation in 2011–2015 compared to 2006–2010. Methods: Development of a four-factor additive-multiplicative model of the tax revenue formation in regions, application of the proportional and logarithm methods of factor analysis to assessment of contribution of various activities and their determinants to increase in tax revenues of sub-federal budgets, evaluation of inter-regional inequality of tax revenues growth based on the weighted coefficient of variation, and decomposition of this inequality using the A. Shorrocks technique. Findings & Value added: We identified activities that made the largest contribution to the increase in tax revenues of the Russian sub-federal budgets. We found that the inflation factor had a predominant positive effect on the growth of tax revenues, while the contribution of the economic growth factor was 4 times less; however, the situation in various activities differed significantly. Generally, changes of sectoral levels of tax return and tax absorption influenced negatively the regional tax revenues. In addition, they moved in opposite direction in the regions. Ultimately, the uneven change in tax returns and price levels in the mining and manufacturing activities of Russian regions made the greatest contribution to inter-regional inequality of the growth of sub-federal budgets tax revenues.