The Myth of the Coup Contagion

Abstract

Abstract:The recent spate of coups and coup attempts—six successful and three failed attempts in the span of twelve months—is not an indication that coup activity will return to the high levels seen during the Cold War. There is no evidence of a contagious wave; what we are seeing is simply the coincidence of already coup-prone countries (mainly in Africa) having coup attempts in the same period. These attempts were also not driven by increased insurgent activity or by western training of these militaries. However, this flurry of coup activity has revealed that post–Cold War norms against coups have eroded and will likely continue to get weaker, making a return to post-Cold war levels of coup activity unlikely.