The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Fluctuation on Non-performing Loans in Kazakhstan: Evidence from the Ricardian Curse of the Resource Boom

IF 1.2 Q4 BUSINESS

Journal of East-West Business Pub Date : 2022-11-13 DOI:10.1080/10669868.2022.2141940

Lee Chin, H. Saydaliev, S. Kadyrov

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of oil price fluctuations on non-performing loans (NPLs) between 2009-Q1 and 2020-Q1 for 28 banks in Kazakhstan. Dynamic panel threshold analysis revealed an initial increase of oil prices, improving creditworthiness, thereby reducing NPLs; however, after cross a certain threshold, the relationship was shown to become the opposite. This finding is in line with the Ricardian curse and resource windfall. The results suggest that optimal borrowings and lending should be actively monitored to mitigate potential liquidity problems of banks and consequently NPLs. The practical implications and policy recommendation of which are important to policy makers.

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哈萨克斯坦石油价格波动对不良贷款的不对称影响——来自资源繁荣的Ricardian诅咒的证据

摘要本文研究了2009-一季度和2020-一季度哈萨克斯坦28家银行的油价波动对不良贷款(NPLs)的不对称影响。动态面板阈值分析显示，油价最初上涨，改善了信用，从而减少了不良贷款;然而，在超过一定的阈值后，关系就变得相反了。这一发现与李嘉图诅咒和资源横财是一致的。结果表明，应积极监测最佳借贷，以减轻银行潜在的流动性问题，从而减少不良贷款。其实际影响和政策建议对决策者很重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of East-West Business BUSINESS-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

26.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Journal of East-West Business is a quarterly journal that deals with contemporary and emerging aspects of business studies, strategies, development, and practice as they relate to the Russian Federation, the new republics of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Eastern/Central Europe-and business relationships with other countries of the world. The Journal of East-West Business is international in scope and treats business issues from comparative, cross-cultural, and cross-national perspectives. The journal features an Editorial Advisory Board that represents the Russian Federation, Eastern/Central European, and Baltic states in this new business arena.