Borrowers' perceptions of lending conditions: worlds apart or closer than close

Abstract

Given that lenders and borrowers interact in the same (credit) market, an interesting research question that arises is whether the demand side of the market correctly comprehends the actual credit market conditions that are primarily shaped by the supply side. We explore this by utilising available surveys conducted separately for the two sides of the credit market and empirically investigate whether, and by which mechanism, demand-side perceptions relate to supply-side credit conditions. Our results indicate that demand-side perceptions do not match one-for-one supply-side conditions, but are rather described by an adaptive mechanism. This mechanism suggests that demand-side perceptions are modified every period by a fraction of the last period's perception error. Additionally, we find that demand-side perceptions systematically overshoot the actual conditions, and this overshooting is accentuated for periphery countries and smaller firms.