Medium- and Long-term Forecast of China’s Electricity Consumption Considering the Fast Growth of New Infrastructure

Abstract

In order to predict China’s electricity consumption demand under situation of fast growth of the new infrastructure, a medium- and long-term electricity consumption demand prediction model based on LEAP is proposed, which calculates the overall electricity consumption of the country according to the activity level and intensity of typical new infrastructure and other sectors. Five different scenarios are set for comparison. The results show that under the basic scenario, China’s electricity consumption will reach 7408 billion kWh in 2035, in which the consumption of new infrastructure accounts for 31.31%.While under the other four scenarios, China’s electricity consumption will reach to the minimum of 7319 billion kWh under the scenario of improvement of energy-saving technology, and the maximum of 7525 billion kWh under the scenario of fast development of the new infrastructure, with higher contributions of the consumption of commercial charging, data centers and 5G base station. Relevant suggestions are put forward from the aspects of new infrastructure construction, development of clean energy and technical standards to reduce the electricity consumption of new infrastructure.