Social Consequences Of Floods: Case Study Of Five Emergencies In Different Global Drainage Basins

Abstract

Identifying social consequences is an essential aspect of considering emergency flood events. There needs to be more consensus in scientific publications on which social consequences of natural disasters, including emergency flood events, should be singled out and considered for the complete analysis of this issue and for further making the right management decisions. To clarify the structure and dynamics of scientific interest in social consequences, a line-by-line content analysis of more than 100 scientific articles on the five largest emergency floods of the early 2010s that occurred in various global basins of the world in countries with different levels of human development was carried out. As a rule, the cycle of interest in the events is 6-7 years, with a peak in the second or third year. There are exceptions to this trend due to either a completely unexpected event or the overlap of several significant events over several years. Social consequences, as the volume of consideration decreases, can be arranged in the following row (by the level of interest, %): death losses (23,1); social solidarity (18,3); management problems (13,4); horizontal mobility (11,3); psychological state (10,9); vertical mobility (7,0); social conflicts (6,2); social adaptation (5,4); health losses (4,4). The relationship of scientific interest in emergency flood events with the country’s level of development has been evaluated. There are three types of connection. With the growth of the Human Development Index (HDI), interest in social solidarity, death losses and management problems increases (the correlation coefficient is 0,54; 0,42; 0,31, respectively); However, consideration of vertical mobility, social conflicts and health losses is typical for lower HDI (the correlation coefficient is -0,86; -0,70; -0,47, respectively). The third group of social consequences (social adaptation, horizontal mobility, psychological state of the population) is statistically poorly related to the level of HDI.