Interstate Wars and Terrorism: the Effect of External Enemies on Domestic and Transnational Terrorism

Abstract

Current research about terrorism does not pay much attention to the relationship between terrorist incidents and interstate wars. This research project examines how interstate wars influenced terrorist incidents from 1970 to 2007 through an empirical study at the monadic level. This project attempts to explain that how interstate wars reduce domestic and transnational terrorist activities through three theoretical explanations, such as the diversionary theory of war, realism, and controlling freedom. In terms of the diversionary theory of war, because external threats like a war divert citizens’ discontent, terrorist incidents decrease in the war period. According to realism theory in the study of international relations, because trade that could increase other countries’ relative interests decreases in wartime, terrorists have less opportunities to obtain resources. Since a government limits public liberty in order to protect national security during war, terrorists confront higher risks and lose an incentive to conduct terrorist attacks. The empirical analysis demonstrates that interstate wars decreased the numbers of domestic and transnational terrorist incidents. However, less freedom during wartime had a critical impact on increasing domestic and international terrorist incidents.