Fuel subsidies to curb cost-push inflation: a case study of Pakistan to assess the impact of untargeted subsidies on fiscal space and current accounts

Abstract

The rapid surge of global oil prices, on account of the pent-up demand after COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war, has significantly contributed to the cost-push inflation as well as twin deficits, predominantly in developing economies. Motivated by the intention to curb the inflation, governments of several oil-dependent economies have rolled out fiscal measures to provide immediate relief to households through subsidizing the fuel component of the consumption basket. This paper provides a case study of Pakistan, wherein the effectiveness of untargeted gasoline and diesel subsidies has been gauged against alternative direct disbursement mechanisms. The analysis reveals that under the price-control based indirect subsidy disbursement mechanism, only 11% of the total domestic subsidies were directed to the poorest 40% of the households, whereas approximately 55% of the total subsidies were allocated to the 20% of the most liquid household segment. The case study analyzes the performance of alternative direct subsidy disbursement mechanisms which transpires into the potential fiscal savings of PKR 74.63 billion, while providing coverage to 40% of the lowest household segment. The study also evaluates the implication of the pass-through of the true prices on the national consumption of gasoline and diesel in the short-term, which reveals the sharp reduction of petroleum consumption in the total bill from 37% to 23%, thereby providing substantial relief to the current account balance. The finding provides key insights for economies to institutionalize the necessary social protection system and progressively transit to the direct subsidy disbursement mechanism while striving to contain the cost-push-based inflation triggered through the rapid movement of global oil prices. © 2022. The Author(s).