An Analysis of the Group Bases of British Politics: 1983–2019

IF 1.3 3区社会学 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Parliamentary Affairs Pub Date : 2022-10-11 DOI:10.1093/pa/gsac021

B. Farrer, Joshua N. Zingher

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper, we address two questions: (i) what were the group bases of the British electoral coalitions? And (ii) how have these group bases of support changed in the past decades? We determine which social group memberships significantly influence vote choice by using British Election Study data. We then incorporate demographic data to measure how many votes each social group contributed at each general election from 1983 to 2019. We find that the Labour Party has been obtaining fewer votes from union members and manual labourers, primarily due to shrinking group size and declining turnout. Yet, it is attracting more support from university graduates and ethnic minorities—groups growing in relative size. The Conservatives attract more votes from whites, homeowners and Anglicans. These groups are shrinking as a share of the population, but turn out at rates higher than the national average. Overall, our analysis reveals the changing cleavage structures in British politics.

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英国政治的群体基础分析：1983-1919

在本文中，我们讨论了两个问题：（i）英国选举联盟的团体基础是什么？以及（ii）在过去几十年中，这些群体的支持基础发生了怎样的变化？我们使用英国选举研究数据来确定哪些社会群体成员对投票选择有显著影响。然后，我们结合人口统计数据来衡量1983年至2019年的每次大选中，每个社会群体贡献了多少选票。我们发现，工党从工会成员和体力劳动者那里获得的选票越来越少，主要是由于团体规模缩小和投票率下降。然而，它正在吸引更多来自大学毕业生和少数民族的支持，这些群体的规模相对越来越大。保守党吸引了更多来自白人、房主和圣公会教徒的选票。这些群体在人口中所占的比例正在缩小，但其增长率高于全国平均水平。总的来说，我们的分析揭示了英国政治中不断变化的分裂结构。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Parliamentary Affairs POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

3.00

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Parliamentary Affairs is an established, peer-reviewed academic quarterly covering all the aspects of government and politics directly or indirectly connected with Parliament and parliamentary systems in Britain and throughout the world. The journal is published in partnership with the Hansard Society. The Society was created to promote parliamentary democracy throughout the world, a theme which is reflected in the pages of Parliamentary Affairs.