Modelling changes in healthcare demand through geographic data extrapolation

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-05-02 DOI:10.1080/20476965.2021.1906764

Geraint I. Palmer, P. Harper, Vincent A. Knight, Cathy Brooks

引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT Stay Well Plans are a new programme of care offered to frail and elderly people in Newport. In 2016 a roll out the programme to be offered in all five counties serviced by Aneurin Bevan University Health Board was planned. This paper presents the data analysis and modelling used to determine the programme's effects on the demand of the wider system, and the effects of a Gwent-wide roll out. We extrapolate information from data from a geographical subset of the model domain to a larger geographical area, adjusting for population sizes, deprivation, and distances to healthcare facilities. These parametrise a Markov model and Monte Carlo simulation to predict changes in demand due to different levels of roll out. We conclude that a programme roll out may result in a large reduction on demand at residential care, however at the expense of an increase in demand at community care services.

查看原文本刊更多论文

通过地理数据外推模拟医疗保健需求的变化

摘要“健康计划”是纽波特市为体弱和老年人提供的一项新的护理计划。2016年，计划在Aneurin Bevan大学健康委员会服务的所有五个县推出该计划。本文介绍了数据分析和建模，用于确定该计划对更广泛系统需求的影响，以及Gwent范围内推广的影响。我们将数据中的信息从模型域的地理子集外推到更大的地理区域，根据人口规模、贫困和到医疗机构的距离进行调整。这些参数化了马尔可夫模型和蒙特卡洛模拟，以预测由于不同的推出水平而引起的需求变化。我们得出的结论是，计划的推出可能会导致住院护理需求的大幅减少，但代价是社区护理服务需求的增加。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.