Pro-government militias and civil war termination

IF 1.7 2区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Conflict Management and Peace Science Pub Date : 2021-11-24 DOI:10.1177/07388942211048419

Chelsea Estancona, L. Reid

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Why do governments choose to fund pro-government militias (PGMs) if doing so could extend costly civil conflict? While PGMs are active in a majority of civil wars, their impact on conflict termination remains poorly understood. We argue that the choice to fund PGMs is a strategic one for states and part of their efforts to influence wartime dynamics and conflict termination. We hypothesize that PGMs’ impact on conflict termination is conditional on whether they are government funded. Government-funded PGMs help states to ward off costly negotiations and encourage the rebellion's gradual dissolution. Using competing risks analyses on civil wars ending between 1981 and 2007, we find robust evidence that PGM funding affects conflict outcomes.

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亲政府民兵与内战的结束

如果这样做会延长代价高昂的国内冲突，为什么政府会选择资助亲政府的民兵?虽然维和部队在大多数内战中都很活跃，但它们对结束冲突的影响仍然知之甚少。我们认为，对各国来说，选择资助军事防御系统是一种战略选择，也是它们影响战时动态和冲突终止努力的一部分。我们假设PGMs对冲突终止的影响取决于它们是否由政府资助。政府资助的PGMs帮助各州避免昂贵的谈判，并鼓励叛乱的逐步解散。通过对1981年至2007年间结束的内战的竞争风险分析，我们发现了强有力的证据，证明PGM资金会影响冲突结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Conflict Management and Peace Science INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： Conflict Management and Peace Science is a peer-reviewed journal published five times a year from 2009. It contains scientific papers on topics such as: - international conflict; - arms races; - the effect of international trade on political interactions; - foreign policy decision making; - international mediation; - and game theoretic approaches to conflict and cooperation. Affiliated with the Peace Science Society (International), Conflict Management and Peace Science features original and review articles focused on news and events related to the scientific study of conflict and peace. Members of the Peace Science Society (International) receive an annual subscription to Conflict Management and Peace Science as a benefit of membership.