Oil-stock nexus: the role of oil shocks for GCC markets

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to examine the links between oil price shocks and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets from February 2004 to December 2019. Knowledge of such links is important to both investors and policymakers in understanding the transmission of shocks across markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Ready (2018) oil price decomposition method and the quantile regression approach to conduct the analysis. Findings Initial results show a positive oil price change increases stock returns, while greater volatility decreases returns. The oil shock decomposition results reveal a significant positive impact of supply-side shocks on stocks. This contrasts with the literature that argues demand-side shocks are more important. While factors such as liquidity and the lack of hedging instruments can increase the vulnerability of GCC equities to oil price shocks, the result reflects the unique economic structure of the GCC bloc, notably, marked by dependency on oil revenues. In analysing quantile-based results, oil supply shocks mainly exhibit lower-tail dependence, while the authors do uncover some evidence of demand-side shocks affecting mid and upper-tail dependence. Originality/value Acknowledging the presence of endogeneity in the relation between oil and economic activity, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to combine the oil price decompositions of Ready (2018) with a quantile regression framework in the GCC context. The results reveal notable difference to those previously reported in the literature.