ASSESSING LOGISTIC FACTORS AND FORECASTING THEIR IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF KAZAKHSTAN

IF 0.5 Q4 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Transport Problems Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI:10.20858/tp.2022.17.4.04

Z. Raimbekov, K. Sharipbekova, B. Syzdykbayeva, A. Turginbayeva, A. Sładkowski

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Abstract

This article assesses the impact of the development of logistics systems (LS) on the efficiency of the economy. A multi-level methodology for assessing the impact of LS on the economy consisting of six stages (transport, investment, economic, information, material and technical, labor and infrastructure) is proposed using a dynamic structural model for a group of macroeconomic logistical factors for the period 2009–2020 for the republic and the regions of Kazakhstan. Their close relationship with economic growth has been established. Based on the results of factorial and index methods of analysis, mechanisms of differentiation in the management of the regional economy are proposed based on the level of development of logistics and their impact on the growth of the regional economy. Four groups of regions are identified according to the level of development of logistics and their impact on the economy, and directions for their further development are proposed. The forecast is based on the studied factors up to 2030. In particular, it has been established that for the long-term development of the economy of Kazakhstan, the development of agriculture and industry, investment in fixed assets, freight turnover, the availability of vehicles, wages, communication services, and the density of the railway network are important factors.

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评估物流因素并预测其对经济增长的影响:以哈萨克斯坦为例

本文评估了物流系统(LS)的发展对经济效率的影响。提出了一种多层次的方法，用于评估LS对经济的影响，包括六个阶段(运输，投资，经济，信息，材料和技术，劳动力和基础设施)，使用2009-2020年期间哈萨克斯坦共和国和地区的一组宏观经济物流因素的动态结构模型。它们与经济增长的密切关系已经确立。基于因子分析法和指数分析法的分析结果，提出了基于物流发展水平及其对区域经济增长影响的区域经济管理差异化机制。根据物流发展水平及其对经济的影响，划分了四类区域，并提出了进一步发展的方向。该预测是基于研究到2030年的因素。特别是，已经确定，对于哈萨克斯坦经济的长期发展，农业和工业的发展，固定资产的投资，货运周转量，车辆的可用性，工资，通信服务和铁路网的密度是重要因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Problems TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

14.30%

发文量

审稿时长

48 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal Transport Problems is a peer-reviewed open-access scientific journal, owned by Silesian University of Technology and has more than 10 years of experience. The editorial staff includes mainly employees of the Faculty of Transport. Editorial Board performs the functions of current work related to the publication of the next issues of the journal. The International Programming Council coordinates the long-term editorial policy the journal. The Council consists of leading scientists of the world, who deal with the problems of transport. This Journal is a source of information and research results in the transportation and communications science: transport research, transport technology, transport economics, transport logistics, transport law.