Allied but Deviating NATO in the Multipolar World

Abstract

“How long can NATO last in a post-US hegemonic, multipolar world?” has become an important question in contemporary world politics. By statistically analyzing NATO alliance cohesion since its inception, this analysis contributes to the literature by developing an original set of indicators that rely on the ideal point estimates from a recent UN General Assembly voting dataset. It empirically verifies that NATO members have higher cohesion than other UN members, although the United States has been the most significant deviating member since 1980. The findings support some earlier proposals such as the external threat hypothesis. They also contradict some others, notably the literature on the Donald Trump administration’s withdrawal doctrine, and the decline of US hegemony and its policy implications. The article concludes that the future challenge for NATO cohesion not only would be the possibility of US abdication or abandonment, but also other members’ balancing the United States as the hegemon.