Cure and mortality trend in the early outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China

上海预防医学 Pub Date : 2020-03-24 DOI:10.19428/J.CNKI.SJPM.2020.20081

Xiao Tan, Zhi Qian, Hong wei Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

[Objective] To investigate the cure and mortality trend in the early outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China, enhance the entire epidemiological knowledge about COVID-19, screen the more effective evaluation indicators, and supply the solid evidence for assessing the prevention and control measures and input-output. [Methods] The daily new confirmed cases, the cumulative cure and death cases in China and Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province, which were reported officially from January 20, 2020 to February 20, 2020, were collected to calculate the fatality rate, the ratio of the numbers of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death cases, et al, and to make the epidemiological description. [Results] Till Feb 20, 2020, the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Hubei Province was 3.42%, which was a little higher than that of the global country (2.96%). The fatality rate of COVID-19 outside Hubei Province in China was 0.71%. The trends on the indexes, including the daily new cure cases, daily new death and the ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death, in Hubei Province and the whole country was highly consistent, while the significant difference existed between Hubei Province and outside Hubei Province in China. The daily ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death in Hubei Province (the global country) exhibited the U trend, which reached to the lowest point on Jan 27 and subsequently grew more rapidly after Feb 5. [Conclusion] The ratio of cumulative cure cases to cumulative death was easier and effective to reflect the outbreak situation than other absolute indexes like the daily new cure cases or death. Since Feb 5, 2020, the daily cure status of COVID-19 was superior to the daily death, which indicated the effectiveness of series of the joint defense and control measures from our government and society. However, plenty of challenges exist when recovering the normal production and life if the epidemic reaches to be sustainably defensed and controlled.

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中国2019冠状病毒病（新冠肺炎）早期暴发的治愈和死亡率趋势

[目的]了解我国2019冠状病毒病（新冠肺炎）早期疫情的治愈率和死亡率趋势，增强对新冠肺炎的整体流行病学知识，筛选更有效的评价指标，为评估防控措施和投入产出提供坚实的依据。[方法]收集2020年1月20日至2020年2月20日官方报告的每日新增确诊病例、湖北省及湖北省外累计治愈和死亡病例，计算病死率、累计治愈病例数与累计死亡病例数之比等，并进行流行病学描述。【结果】截至2020年2月20日，湖北省新冠肺炎病死率为3.42%，略高于全球水平（2.96%），我国湖北省外新冠肺炎病死率为0.71%，湖北省与全国高度一致，湖北省与湖北省外存在显著差异。湖北省（全球国家）的每日累计治愈病例与累计死亡病例之比呈U趋势，1月27日达到最低点，2月5日后增长更快。[结论]累计治愈病例与累计死亡的比值比其他绝对指标（如每日新增治愈病例或死亡）更容易、更有效地反映疫情暴发情况。自2020年2月5日以来，新冠肺炎每日治愈率优于每日死亡率，这表明我国政府和社会一系列联防联控措施的有效性。然而，如果疫情能够得到可持续的防御和控制，那么在恢复正常生产和生活时，仍存在许多挑战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

上海预防医学

CiteScore

0.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

10697

期刊介绍： Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine（SJPM） sponsored by Shanghai Preventive Medicine Association，ISSN 1004-9231, CN 31-1635/R , was founded in October 1989. Over the past 33 years, the Journal has been “a mentor for preventive health care professionals and an important link between professionals”. It is a platform to exchange academic achievements and information, to encourage the development of new technology, to combine theory with practice, popularization with improvement in the fields of preventive medicine, public health and safety, maternity care, health education, health supervision and community health work. SJPM has been accepted by many leading databases home and abroad, including: Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ) CAB Abstracts, CABI Global Health, CABI Japan Science and Technology Agency, Chinese Bibliographic (JST China) Database Western Pacific Region Index Medicus of WHO (WPRIM) Chemical Abstracts (CA), American Chemical Society Ulrich's Periodicals Directory（Ulrichsweb） ICI World of Journals Database Chinese Academic Journal Comprehensive Evaluation Database Chinese Core Journal (Selection) Database Chinese Periodical Full-text Database (CJFD) Chinese Science and Technology Periodical Database Wanfang Data - Digital Journal Group China National Knowledge Infrastructure Weipu Information Network, etc.