Can We Ex Post Facto Justify Duckworth-Lewis Rule?

Abstract

In a one-day international cricket match, due to disturbances such as rain or storm, at least one of teams cannot bat for stipulated fifty overs. The Duckworth-Lewis rule is then applied so that the match possibly ends up with a decision. We explore whether the rule can be justified based on statistical analysis of outcomes of oneday matches in which all the stipulated overs were bowled as well as matches in which it was needed to apply the rule. Our analysis shows that the rule is quite fair.