The Application of the Simplified Speculative Frame Method for Monitoring the Development of the Housing Market

Abstract

Abstract This article contributes to research into price dynamics on the real estate market. It proposes a simplified index-based speculative frame method for measuring above-average increases and decreases in real estate prices and monitoring market performance. The theoretical part of the article reviews the literature on the implications of real estate market stability on the economy, monitoring market development, and standard methods for analyzing the housing market with special emphasis on index-based methods. The experimental part of the article presents the results of a study analyzing more than 100,000 transactions on the Warsaw housing market between 2004 and 2015, a period characterized by a considerable increase in house prices. The price dynamics of apartments on the Warsaw real estate market was determined with the use of a time variable. The turning point in the market trend was identified. This article contributes to research into price dynamics on the real estate market.