Wrestling with imponderables: assessing perceptions of biological-weapons utility

Abstract

Understanding states’ perception of biological-weapons (BW) utility is key to understanding the motivations behind states’ development, possession, and use of these weapons. The calculations underlying a determination of utility are complex, having to balance threat perceptions, national scientific and industrial capacities, diplomatic relations, and the importance of prohibitory norms. Case studies of the former US and British offensive BW programs, beginning in World War II, illustrate how perceptions of BW utility evolve under wartime circumstances. The US case also illustrates how perceptions of BW utility heightened during periods of international tension, namely the Korean War and early in the John F. Kennedy administration. Both the US and UK examples also demonstrate how possession of nuclear weapons affected perceptions of BW utility and the role of BW in military doctrine. Given the prohibitions on BW development and possession, BW utility today is limited to small-scale, covert operations, including assassinations, much like the recent assassinations and attempted assassinations conducted by North Korea and Russia. Unlike chemical weapons, BW have the additional characteristics of delaying the onset of effects, mimicking natural diseases, and foiling attribution efforts.