How did Taiwan’s Critical Election Changed China’s Taiwan Policy in the Early 2000s: A Modified Two-Level Game Analysis

Abstract

This study explores how Taiwanese domestic politics in the 1990s influenced China’s Taiwan policy in the early 2000s. To illustrate this, this paper applied Robert Putnam’s discussion of the linkage between domestic politics and international politics using the two-level game theory. Using a two-level analysis, this paper analyzes how Taiwanese social cleavages in the 1990s led to a change not only in its domestic politics but ultimately in China’s Taiwan policy. Taiwan’s social cleavages such as ethnicity and national identity have erupted throughout democratic transition in the 1990s.These social cleavages were also reflected in the political party system. As a result, political parties divided into two camps, and the unification or independence issues became the borderline between them. These points culminated in the 2000 “critical presidential election.” The 2000 Presidential election resulted in Taiwan’s strengthened bargaining power on the issue as well as its reduced win-set. The election also resulted in China’s bargaining power becoming relatively weak. In order to expand the possibility of consensus with Taiwan instead of using military threat, China expanded its win-set first and then interacted both with Taiwanese politicians from the Pan-blue camp and with Taiwanese businesspersons in China for the purposes of expanding Taiwan’s win-set. it applies Putnam’s discussion on the linkage between domestic and relations.