Irrational Expectations, Future Social Security Benefits, and Life Cycle Planning

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
J. Turner, Saisai Zhang, G. Hughes, D. Rajnes
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

An extensive amount of literature examines the impact of expectations on economic behavior at both the micro and macro level. In the area of individual financial security, research taking into account the difference between rational expectations and actual behavioral expectations regarding asset returns, inflation, savings, and spending has contributed to better understanding and improved program design. In contrast, relatively little attention has been paid to workers’ expectations of their future Social Security benefits. Because Social Security benefits are an important source of retirement income for most workers in many countries, future Social Security benefit expectations presumably play an important role in their consumption, saving, labor supply, and portfolio investment decisions. This article surveys the literature relating to these expectations and presents evidence of workers’ expectations of future Social Security benefits in Canada, Ireland, and the United States. In all three countries, with differing systems of financing and differing politics concerning the programs, surveys find a surprising degree of pessimism and lack of trust in Social Security programs. Although rhetoric in the United States about Social Security being “broken” may be part of the explanation there, such rhetoric is not present in Canada and Ireland.
非理性预期、未来社会保障福利和生命周期规划
大量文献从微观和宏观两个层面考察了预期对经济行为的影响。在个人金融安全领域,考虑到资产回报、通货膨胀、储蓄和支出方面的理性预期和实际行为预期之间的差异的研究有助于更好地理解和改进计划设计。相比之下,人们对工人未来社会保障福利的期望关注相对较少。由于社会保障福利是许多国家大多数工人退休收入的重要来源,未来的社会保障福利预期可能在他们的消费、储蓄、劳动力供应和投资组合决策中发挥着重要作用。本文调查了与这些期望相关的文献,并提供了加拿大、爱尔兰和美国工人对未来社会保障福利期望的证据。在这三个国家,由于融资体系不同,项目政治也不同,调查发现,人们对社会保障项目的悲观情绪和缺乏信任程度令人惊讶。尽管美国关于社会保障“被打破”的言论可能是其中的一部分解释,但加拿大和爱尔兰并不存在这种言论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Journal of Retirement
Journal of Retirement Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Finance
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
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