{"title":"Weather and Crime—Cautious evidence from South Africa","authors":"Jörg Ankel-Peters, Anna Bruederle, G. Roberts","doi":"10.1093/qopen/qoac033","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n South Africa has one of the highest crime rates in the world. This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on various types of crime. Using a 12-year panel data set at a monthly resolution on the police ward level, we observe a short-term effect of temperatures on violent crime. Furthermore, we find evidence for the medium-term effect of weather on crime via droughts. Yet, effect sizes are subtle in both cases and we also emphasize often neglected but well-documented limitations to the interpretability of weather data and weather-induced mechanisms. Recognizing these limitations, we conclude with a cautious interpretation of our findings to inform police deployment strategies.","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Q open","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoac033","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
South Africa has one of the highest crime rates in the world. This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on various types of crime. Using a 12-year panel data set at a monthly resolution on the police ward level, we observe a short-term effect of temperatures on violent crime. Furthermore, we find evidence for the medium-term effect of weather on crime via droughts. Yet, effect sizes are subtle in both cases and we also emphasize often neglected but well-documented limitations to the interpretability of weather data and weather-induced mechanisms. Recognizing these limitations, we conclude with a cautious interpretation of our findings to inform police deployment strategies.