Effect of global climate change on the distribution of Anchomenus dorsalis (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in Europe

Abstract

Shifts in the bioclimatic range of Anchomenus dorsalis – specialized entomophage – were modeled in the MaxEntsoftware package and are presented on habitat maps. For the prediction, we used two climatic scenarios – mild (RCP2.6) and extreme (RCP8.5). Under the considered scenarios, the further warming would lead to shift and extension of the range to the north, northeast and east and decrease in the number of populations in the southern regions of Europe. The most important bioclimatic indicators which describe the geographic distribution of A. dorsalis are mean annual air temperature, mean daily amplitude of temperature for each month, overall amount of precipitations in the coldest quarter of the year, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter of the year, and annual amount of precipitations. Global warming causes the bioclimatic range of A. dorsalis to shift northeast and east in intracontinental territories, and west and northwest on islands. This species of ground beetle is an important object in monitoring of the condition of natural and agrarian ecosystems, sensitive to the growing global climate changes.  Poikilothermic animals may suffer from overheating, and even if they live far in the northern hemisphere, the ability of their organism to withstand increase in the environmental temperature is limited. Mild winters (with higher temperatures) may increase the mortality of A. dorsalis by exhausting their energy reserves.