Assessment of Current and Future Climate Change Impact on Soil Loss Rate of Agewmariam Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

Soil erosion is 1 of the most important environmental problems that pose serious challenges to food security and the future development prospects of Ethiopia. Climate change influences soil erosion and is critical for the planning and management of soil and water resources. This study aimed to assess the current and future climate change impact on soil loss rate for the near future (2011-2040), middle future (2041-2070), and far future (2071-2100) periods relative to the reference period (1989-2018) in the Agewmariam watershed, Northern Ethiopia. The 20 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (intermediate scenario) and 8.5 (high emissions scenario) scenarios were used for climate projection. The statistical bias correction method was used to downscale GCMs. Universal Soil Loss Equation integrated with geographic information system was used to estimate soil loss. The results showed that the current average annual soil loss rate and the annual total soil loss on the study area were found to be 25 t ha−1 year−1 and 51 403.13 tons, respectively. The soil loss has increased by 3.0%, 4.7%, and 5.2% under RCP 4.5 scenarios and 6.0%, 9.52%, and 14.32% under RCP 8.5 scenarios in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the current soil loss rate. Thus, the soil loss rate is expected to increase on all future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s) under both scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) due to the higher erosive power of the future intense rainfall. Thus, climate change will exacerbate the existing soil erosion problem and would need for vigorous new conservation policies and investments to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on soil loss.