Economic and business cycles with time varying in India: evidence from ICT sectors

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics Pub Date : 2020-08-04 DOI:10.1504/ijcee.2020.10031003

C. Chaiboonsri, S. Wannapan, G. Cerulli

{"title":"Economic and business cycles with time varying in India: evidence from ICT sectors","authors":"C. Chaiboonsri, S. Wannapan, G. Cerulli","doi":"10.1504/ijcee.2020.10031003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The purposes of this paper are two main sections. The former is to study the relationship between Indian ICT industries and GDP by applying Bayesian inference. Yearly predominant indexes collected during 2000 to 2015, including Indian GDP, fixed phone usages, mobile phone distributions, internet servers, and broadband suppliers are analysed by employing the Markov-switching model (MS-model) and Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR). The latter is the time-varying parametric VAR model with stochastic volatilities (TVP-VAR). With Bayes statistics, this time-varying analysis can more clearly provide the extended perception to the underlying flexible structure in the economy. Additionally, the Bayesian regression model is used to investigate the ICT multiplier related to Indian economic growth. Empirically, results indicate IT sectors are now becoming the importance of Indian economic expansion, compared with telecommunication sectors. The ICT multiplier also confirms high-technological industrial zones should be systematically enhanced, especially, researches and developments in cyberspace.","PeriodicalId":42342,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijcee.2020.10031003","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The purposes of this paper are two main sections. The former is to study the relationship between Indian ICT industries and GDP by applying Bayesian inference. Yearly predominant indexes collected during 2000 to 2015, including Indian GDP, fixed phone usages, mobile phone distributions, internet servers, and broadband suppliers are analysed by employing the Markov-switching model (MS-model) and Bayesian vector autoregressive model (BVAR). The latter is the time-varying parametric VAR model with stochastic volatilities (TVP-VAR). With Bayes statistics, this time-varying analysis can more clearly provide the extended perception to the underlying flexible structure in the economy. Additionally, the Bayesian regression model is used to investigate the ICT multiplier related to Indian economic growth. Empirically, results indicate IT sectors are now becoming the importance of Indian economic expansion, compared with telecommunication sectors. The ICT multiplier also confirms high-technological industrial zones should be systematically enhanced, especially, researches and developments in cyberspace.

查看原文本刊更多论文

印度随时间变化的经济和商业周期：来自信息和通信技术部门的证据

本文的目的主要有两个部分。前者是应用贝叶斯推理研究印度ICT产业与GDP的关系。采用马尔可夫切换模型（MS模型）和贝叶斯向量自回归模型（BVAR）分析了2000年至2015年期间收集的年度主要指标，包括印度GDP、固定电话使用量、移动电话分布、互联网服务器和宽带供应商。后者是具有随机波动性的时变参数VAR模型（TVP-VAR）。利用贝叶斯统计，这种时变分析可以更清楚地提供对经济中潜在灵活结构的扩展感知。此外，贝叶斯回归模型还用于研究与印度经济增长相关的ICT乘数。根据经验，研究结果表明，与电信部门相比，IT部门现在正成为印度经济扩张的重要组成部分。信息和通信技术乘数也证实，应该系统地加强高科技工业区，特别是网络空间的研究和开发。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： IJCEE explores the intersection of economics, econometrics and computation. It investigates the application of recent computational techniques to all branches of economic modelling, both theoretical and empirical. IJCEE aims at an international and multidisciplinary standing, promoting rigorous quantitative examination of relevant economic issues and policy analyses. The journal''s research areas include computational economic modelling, computational econometrics and statistics and simulation methods. It is an internationally competitive, peer-reviewed journal dedicated to stimulating discussion at the forefront of economic and econometric research. Topics covered include: -Computational Economics: Computational techniques applied to economic problems and policies, Agent-based modelling, Control and game theory, General equilibrium models, Optimisation methods, Economic dynamics, Software development and implementation, -Econometrics: Applied micro and macro econometrics, Monte Carlo simulation, Robustness and sensitivity analysis, Bayesian econometrics, Time series analysis and forecasting techniques, Operational research methods with applications to economics, Software development and implementation.