The Application of Machine Learning in Predicting Mortality Risk in Patients With Severe Femoral Neck Fractures: Prediction Model Development Study.

Abstract

Background: Femoral neck fracture (FNF) accounts for approximately 3.58% of all fractures in the entire body, exhibiting an increasing trend each year. According to a survey, in 1990, the total number of hip fractures in men and women worldwide was approximately 338,000 and 917,000, respectively. In China, FNFs account for 48.22% of hip fractures. Currently, many studies have been conducted on postdischarge mortality and mortality risk in patients with FNF. However, there have been no definitive studies on in-hospital mortality or its influencing factors in patients with severe FNF admitted to the intensive care unit.

Objective: In this paper, 3 machine learning methods were used to construct a nosocomial death prediction model for patients admitted to intensive care units to assist clinicians in early clinical decision-making.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using information of a patient with FNF from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III. After balancing the data set using the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique algorithm, patients were randomly separated into a 70% training set and a 30% testing set for the development and validation, respectively, of the prediction model. Random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and backpropagation neural network prediction models were constructed with nosocomial death as the outcome. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The predictive value of the models was verified in comparison to the traditional logistic model.

Results: A total of 366 patients with FNFs were selected, including 48 cases (13.1%) of in-hospital death. Data from 636 patients were obtained by balancing the data set with the in-hospital death group to survival group as 1:1. The 3 machine learning models exhibited high predictive accuracy, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and backpropagation neural network were 0.98, 0.97, and 0.95, respectively, all with higher predictive performance than the traditional logistic regression model. Ranking the importance of the feature variables, the top 10 feature variables that were meaningful for predicting the risk of in-hospital death of patients were the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, lactate, creatinine, gender, vitamin D, calcium, creatine kinase, creatine kinase isoenzyme, white blood cell, and age.

Conclusions: Death risk assessment models constructed using machine learning have positive significance for predicting the in-hospital mortality of patients with severe disease and provide a valid basis for reducing in-hospital mortality and improving patient prognosis.