A methodological framework for quantitative risk analysis in container shipping operations

Abstract

PurposeContainer shipping is a crucial component of the global supply chain that is affected by a large range of operational risks with high uncertainty, threatening the stability of service, manufacture, distribution and profitability of involved parties. However, quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of container shipping operational risk (CSOR) is being obstructed by the lack of a well-established theoretical structure to guide deeper research efforts. This paper proposes a methodological framework to strengthen the quality and reliability of CSOR analysis (CSORA).Design/methodology/approachFocusing on addressing uncertainties, the framework establishes a solid, overarching and updated basis for quantitative CSOR analysis. The framework consists of clearly defined elements and processes, including knowledge establishing, information gathering, aggregating multiple sources of data (social/deliberative and mathematical/statistical), calculating risk and uncertainty level, and presenting and interpreting quantified results. The framework is applied in a case study of three container shipping companies in Vietnam.FindingsVarious methodological contributions were rendered regarding CSOR characteristics, settings of analysis models, handling of uncertainties and result interpretation. The empirical study also generated valuable managerial implications regarding CSOR management policies.Originality/valueThis paper fills the gap of an updated framework for CSOR analysis considering the recent advancements of container shipping operations and risk management. The framework can be used by both practitioners as a tool for CSOR analysis and scholars as a test bench to facilitate the comparison and development of QRA models.