The Evolution of Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics: The Case of Sweden

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy in Sweden using a time-varying fiscal reaction function. Sufficient sustainability conditions are discussed, and it is demonstrated that fiscal sustainability is consistent with various types of transient fiscal policy and temporary debt expansions. The fiscal response to the debt-to-income ratio is estimated recursively using constant gain least squares. The evolution of fiscal policy in Sweden is evaluated over the period from 1850 to 2014. It is demonstrated that a sustainable fiscal policy can be an outcome of a long-run process of learning. In this process, fiscal authorities are forced to adapt their policies to changes in the economic and political environment. It is concluded that fiscal sustainability should be judged by the eventual ability of fiscal authorities to stabilise debt rather than by transient debt dynamics.