Weak housing demand in a shrinking city: the potential effects of the water crisis on Flint, Michigan’s housing market and homeowners’ perceived mobility

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study explores perceived and real effects of a human-made environmental crisis (the Flint water crisis) on residential mobility and housing demand in the weak market city of Flint, Michigan, USA. We surveyed Flint residents in summer 2016 and found that a large proportion of homeowners believed the water crisis negatively affected their property values; more than half wanted to leave the city but felt constrained by the inability to sell their homes; and one-fifth considered abandoning their homes to leave the city. We used regression models to examine predictors of these responses, and spatial statistics to examine whether responses clustered in the city. Then, to see if the perceptions of homeowners reflected actual changes in the housing market caused by the crisis, we used descriptive statistics, maps, and repeated measures ANOVA models to examine changes in home sales prices and mortgages originations in Flint from 2012–2017, before and after the start of the crisis. The results indicate the water crisis had no discernable effect on the city’s housing market, likely because the market was incredibly weak prior to the crisis. The severe lack of housing demand irrespective of the crisis potentially contributed to residents’ perceptions of constrained mobility.