How has COVID-19 changed trip patterns by purpose in China?

Abstract

COVID-19 has upended the whole world. Due to travel restrictions by governments and increased perceived risks of the disease, there have been significant changes in social activities and travel patterns. This paper investigates the effects of COVID-19 on changes to individuals' travel patterns, particularly for travel purposes. An online questionnaire survey was conducted in China, which incorporates questions about individuals’ sociodemographic and travel characteristics in three different periods of COVID-19 (i.e. before the outbreak, at the peak and after the peak; the peak here refers to the peak of the pandemic in China, between the end of January and 1 May, 2020). The results show that trip frequency decreased sharply from the outbreak until the peak, and drastically increased after the peak. Nevertheless, the data from this study suggests that it has not fully recovered to the level before the outbreak. Subsequently, a series of random parameters bivariate Probit models for changes in travel patterns were estimated with personal characteristics. The findings demonstrate that during the peak of the pandemic, residents who did not live in more developed cities reached low-frequency travel patterns more quickly. For travel purposes, residents of Wuhan, China resumed travelling for work, entertainment and buy necessities at a much higher rate than other cities. After the peak, students' travel for work, entertainment and to buy necessities recovered significantly faster than for other occupations. The findings would be helpful for establishing effective policies to control individual travel and minimize disease spread in a possible future pandemic.