All by Himself? Trump, Isolationism, and the American Electorate

IF 1.2 4区社会学 Q3 SOCIOLOGY

Sociological Quarterly Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI:10.1080/00380253.2021.1966348

Kyle Dodson, Clem Brooks

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT During his campaign and subsequent presidency, Donald Trump staked out and implemented an isolationist foreign policy agenda that sought to put “America First” and curtail U.S. participation in international treaties and trade agreements. Isolationism represented a dramatic turn away from the internationalism of all postwar presidencies, and Trump’s radical foreign policy changes raise two novel questions: Did isolationism resonate with American voters, and if so, how did this shape the outcome of the 2016 presidential election? We analyze how attitudes toward isolationism changed in the American electorate from 1992 to 2016, and whether aggregate changes in isolationism conferred any electoral advantages on Trump in 2016. The results indicate that while isolationism tends to be supported by a relatively small portion of the electorate, aggregate levels of support increased noticeably in 2016. Controlling for established factors, particularly partisanship, isolationism disposed voters to support Trump’s candidacy. These two developments delivered a measurable benefit to Trump, one that is of theoretical significance in going beyond partisanship to influence both Democratic and Republican identifiers. Future shifts in levels or political relevance carry with them a potential to shape elections and policy-making. We discuss implications of findings for scholarship in political behavior and political sociology.

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全靠他自己?特朗普、孤立主义和美国选民

在竞选期间和随后的总统任期内，唐纳德·特朗普提出并实施了孤立主义的外交政策议程，寻求将“美国优先”放在首位，并减少美国对国际条约和贸易协定的参与。孤立主义代表着对战后所有总统的国际主义的戏剧性转向，特朗普激进的外交政策变化提出了两个新问题:孤立主义是否与美国选民产生了共鸣，如果是这样，这是如何影响2016年总统大选的结果的?我们分析了1992年至2016年美国选民对孤立主义的态度是如何变化的，以及孤立主义的总体变化是否给特朗普在2016年的选举中带来了任何优势。结果表明，虽然孤立主义倾向于得到相对较少的选民的支持，但2016年总体支持水平显著上升。孤立主义控制了既定因素，尤其是党派关系，使选民倾向于支持特朗普的候选资格。这两件事给特朗普带来了可衡量的好处，这在理论上具有重要意义，因为它超越了党派之争，影响了民主党和共和党的身份。未来级别或政治相关性的变化可能会影响选举和决策。我们讨论了研究结果对政治行为和政治社会学学术的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Sociological Quarterly SOCIOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Sociological Quarterly is devoted to publishing cutting-edge research and theory in all areas of sociological inquiry. Our focus is on publishing the best in empirical research and sociological theory. We look for articles that advance the discipline and reach the widest possible audience. Since 1960, the contributors and readers of The Sociological Quarterly have made it one of the leading generalist journals in the field. Each issue is designed for efficient browsing and reading and the articles are helpful for teaching and classroom use.