SVEAuAdIR model of COVID-19 Transmission

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic that has occurred has received worldwide attention due to the rapid rate of transmission of the outbreak and the large number of deaths that occurred. The aim of this study is to build the SVEAuAdIR model , determine the transmission of COVID-19 in Indonesia by forecast the spread of the disease, and determine the effect of vaccination by looking at the basic reproduction number  of SVEAuAdIR model. The results obtained from MAPE on the model are 12%. So it can be said that the SVEAuAdIR model is good for prediction models for the spread of COVID-19. The situation where there are no more individuals infected with COVID-19 is called COVID-19 disease free, thus it is predicted that Indonesia will be free of COVID-19 on October 7, 2021. The target of the Indonesian Ministry of Health is that by the end of 2021 the spread of COVID-19 can be stopped . However, on October 7, 2021, judging from the actual data during this research, there were still new cases of COVID-19. On that day there were 1393 new cases infected with COVID-19. Thus, showing that Indonesia's target of being free of COVID-19 disease by the end of 2021 has not been achieved. The  number of the SVEAuAdIR model is in the range of values , which means that the spread of disease is close to disease-free. Based on the results of the  value of the SVEAuAdIR model, this study concluded that vaccination could reduce the spread of COVID-19 compared to those who did not vaccinate